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Guidelines for the Use of Antiretroviral Agents in Pediatric HIV Infection

Appendix C: Supplemental Information

(Last updated:2/12/2014; last reviewed:2/12/2014)

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Table A. Likelihood of Developing AIDS or Death Within 12 Months, by Age and CD4 T-Cell Percentage or Log10 HIV-1 RNA Copy Number in HIV-Infected Children Receiving No Therapy or Zidovudine Monotherapy
CD4 Percentage Log10 HIV RNA Copy Number
Age 10% 20% 25% 30%  6.0 5.0 4.0
Percent Mortality (95% Confidence Interval) 
6 Months 28.7 12.4 8.5 6.4 9.7 4.1 2.7
1 Year 19.5 6.8 4.5 3.3 8.8 3.1 1.7
2 Years 11.7 3.1 2.0 1.5 8.2 2.5 1.1
5 Years 4.9 0.9 0.6 0.5 7.8 2.1 0.7
10 Years 2.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 7.7 2.0 0.6
Percent Developing AIDS (95% Confidence Interval)
6 Months 51.4 31.2 24.9 20.5 23.7 13.6 10.9
1 Year 40.5 20.9 15.9 12.8 20.9 10.5 7.8
2 Years 28.6 12.0 8.8 7.2 18.8 8.1 5.3
5 Years 14.7 4.7 3.7 3.1 17.0 6.0 3.2
10 Years 7.4 2.2 1.9 1.8 16.2 5.1 2.2
Note: Table modified from: HIV Paediatric Prognostic Markers Collaborative Study Group. Lancet. 2003;362:1605-1611. 

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Table B. Death and AIDS/Death Rate per 100 Person-Years by Current Absolute CD4 Cell Count and Age in HIV-Infected Children Receiving No Therapy or Zidovudine Monotherapy (HIV Paediatric Prognostic Markers Collaborative Study) and Adult Seroconverters (CASCADE Study)
Age (Years) Absolute CD4 Cell Count (cells/mm3)
<50 50-99 100-199 200-349 350-499 500+
Rate of Death Per 100 Patient-Years
0-4 59.3 39.6 25.4 11.1 10.0 3.5
5-14 28.9 11.8 4.3 0.89 0.00 0.00
15-24 34.7 6.1 1.1 0.71 0.58 0.65
25-34 47.7 10.8 3.7 1.1 0.38 0.22
35-44 58.8 15.6 4.5 0.92 0.74 0.85
45-54 66.0 18.8 7.7 1.8 1.3 0.86
55+ 91.3 21.4 17.6 3.8 2.5 0.91
Rate of AIDS or Death per 100 Patient-Years
0-4 82.4 83.2 57.3 21.4 20.7 14.5
5-14 64.3 19.6 16.0 6.1 4.4 3.5
5-24 61.7 30.2 5.9 2.6 1.8 1.2
25-34 93.2 57.6 19.3 6.1 2.3 1.1
35-44 88.1 58.7 25.5 6.6 4.0 1.9
45-54 129.1 56.2 24.7 7.7 3.1 2.7
55+ 157.9 42.5 30.0 10.0 5.1 1.8
Note: Table modified from: HIV Paediatric Prognostic Markers Collaborative Study and the CASCADE Collaboration. J Infect Dis. 2008;197:398-404.

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Table C. Association of Baseline Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) RNA Copy Number and CD4 T-Cell Percentage with Long-Term Risk of Death in HIV-Infected Childrena
Baseline HIV RNAc (Copies/mL)
Baseline CD4 Percentage
  Deathsb
No. Patientsd Number Percentage
 ≤100,000 
≥15% 103   15  (15%)
<15%  24  15 (63%)
>100,000  
≥15%   89  32  (36%)
<15%   36  29  (81%)
a Data from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Intravenous Immunoglobulin Clinical Trial.
b Mean follow-up: 5.1 years.
c Tested by NASBA® assay (manufactured by Organon Teknika, Durham, North Carolina) on frozen stored serum.
d Mean age: 3.4 years.

Source: Mofenson LM, Korelitz J, Meyer WA, et al. The relationship between serum human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) RNA level, CD4 lymphocyte percent, and long-term mortality risk in HIV-1-infected children. J Infect Dis. 1997;175(5):1029–1038.

Figure A. Estimated Probability of AIDS Within 12 Months by Age and CD4 Percentage in HIV-Infected Children Receiving No Therapy or Zidovudine Monotherapy Figure 1
Figure modified from Lancet 2003;362:1605-1611

Figure B. Estimated Probability of Death Within 12 Months by Age and CD4 Percentage in HIV-Infected Children Receiving No Therapy or Zidovudine Monotherapy Figure 2
Figure modified from Lancet 2003;362:1605-1611

Figure C. Death Rate per 100 Person-Years in HIV-Infected Children Aged 5 Years or Older in the HIV Paediatric Prognostic Marker Collaborative Study and HIV-Infected Seroconverting Adults from the CASCADE Study*
Figrue 3
Figure modifed from: HIV Paediatric Prognostic Markers Collaborative Study and the CASCADE Collaboration. J Infect Dis. 2008;197:398-404.

Figure D. Estimated Probability of AIDS within 12 Months of Age and HIV RNA Copy Number in HIV-Infected Children Receiving No Therapy or Zidovudine Monotherapy  
Figure 4
Figure modified from Lancet 2003;362:1605-1611

Figure E. Estimated Probability of Death Within 12 Months by Age and HIV RNA Copy Number in HIV-Infected Children Receiving No Therapy or Zidovudine Monotherapy  Figure 5
Figure modified from Lancet 2003;362:1605-1611