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Guidelines for the Use of Antiretroviral Agents in Pediatric HIV Infection

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Appendix C: Supplemental Information

Last Updated: February 12, 2014; Last Reviewed: February 12, 2014

Table A. Likelihood of Developing AIDS or Death Within 12 Months, by Age and CD4 T-Cell Percentage or Log10 HIV-1 RNA Copy Number in HIV-Infected Children Receiving No Therapy or Zidovudine Monotherapy
CD4 Percentage   Log10 HIV RNA Copy Number
 Age 10% 20% 25% 30%   6.0 5.0 4.0
Percent Mortality (95% Confidence Interval)
6 Months 28.7 12.4 8.5 6.4   9.7 4.1 2.7
1 Year 19.5 6.8 4.5 3.3 8.8 3.1 1.7
2 Years 11.7 3.1 2.0 1.5 8.2 2.5 1.1
5 Years 4.9 0.9 0.6 0.5 7.8 2.1 0.7
10 Years 2.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 7.7 2.0 0.6
Percent Developing AIDS (95% Confidence Interval)
6 Months 51.4 31.2 24.9 20.5 23.7 13.6 10.9
1 Year 40.5 20.9 15.9 12.8 20.9 10.5 7.8
2 Years 28.6 12.0 8.8 7.2 18.8 8.1 5.3
5 Years 14.7 4.7 3.7 3.1 17.0 6.0 3.2
10 Years 7.4 2.2 1.9 1.8 16.2 5.1 2.2
Note: Table modified from: HIV Paediatric Prognostic Markers Collaborative Study Group. Lancet. 2003;362:1605-1611.

Table B. Death and AIDS/Death Rate per 100 Person-Years by Current Absolute CD4 Cell Count and Age in HIV-Infected Children Receiving No Therapy or Zidovudine Monotherapy (HIV Paediatric Prognostic Markers Collaborative Study) and Adult Seroconverters (CASCADE Study)
Age (Years) Absolute CD4 Cell Count (cells/mm3)
<50 50–99 100–199 200–349 350–499 500+
Rate of Death Per 100 Patient-Years
0–4 59.3 39.6 25.4 11.1 10.0 3.5
5–14 28.9 11.8 4.3 0.89 0.00 0.00
15–24 34.7 6.1 1.1 0.71 0.58 0.65
25–34 47.7 10.8 3.7 1.1 0.38 0.22
35–44 58.8 15.6 4.5 0.92 0.74 0.85
45–54 66.0 18.8 7.7 1.8 1.3 0.86
55+ 91.3 21.4 17.6 3.8 2.5 0.91
Rate of AIDS or Death per 100 Patient-Years
0–4 82.4 83.2 57.3 21.4 20.7 14.5
5–14 64.3 19.6 16.0 6.1 4.4 3.5
15–24 61.7 30.2 5.9 2.6 1.8 1.2
25–34 93.2 57.6 19.3 6.1 2.3 1.1
35–44 88.1 58.7 25.5 6.6 4.0 1.9
45–54 129.1 56.2 24.7 7.7 3.1 2.7
55+ 157.9 42.5 30.0 10.0 5.1 1.8
Note: Table modified from: HIV Paediatric Prognostic Markers Collaborative Study and the CASCADE Collaboration. J Infect Dis. 2008;197:398-404.

Table C. Association of Baseline Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) RNA Copy Number and CD4 T-Cell Percentage with Long-Term Risk of Death in HIV-Infected Children
Baseline HIV RNAc (Copies/mL)
Baseline CD4 Percentage
No. Patientsd Deathsb
Number Percentage
≤100,000
≥15% 103 15 (15%)
<15% 24 15 (63%)
>100,000
≥15% 89 32 (36%)
<15% 36 29 (81%)
a Data from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Intravenous Immunoglobulin Clinical Trial.
b Mean follow-up: 5.1 years.
c Tested by NASBA© assay (manufactured by Organon Teknika, Durham, North Carolina) on frozen stored serum.
d Mean age: 3.4 years.

Source: Mofenson LM, Korelitz J, Meyer WA, et al. The relationship between serum human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) RNA level, CD4 lymphocyte percent, and long-term mortality risk in HIV-1-infected children. J Infect Dis. 1997;175(5):1029–1038.

Figure A. Estimated Probability of AIDS Within 12 Months by Age and CD4 Percentage in HIV-Infected Children Receiving No Therapy or Zidovudine Monotherapy Figure 1
Figure modified from Lancet 2003;362:1605-1611

Figure B. Estimated Probability of Death Within 12 Months by Age and CD4 Percentage in HIV-Infected Children Receiving No Therapy or Zidovudine Monotherapy Figure 2
Figure modified from Lancet 2003;362:1605-1611

Figure C. Death Rate per 100 Person-Years in HIV-Infected Children Aged 5 Years or Older in the HIV Paediatric Prognostic Marker Collaborative Study and HIV-Infected Seroconverting Adults from the CASCADE Study*
                                     Figrue 3
Figure modifed from: HIV Paediatric Prognostic Markers Collaborative Study and the CASCADE Collaboration. J Infect Dis. 2008;197:398-404.

Figure D. Estimated Probability of AIDS within 12 Months of Age and HIV RNA Copy Number in HIV-Infected Children Receiving No Therapy or Zidovudine Monotherapy  
                                     Figure 4
Figure modified from Lancet 2003;362:1605-1611

Figure E. Estimated Probability of Death Within 12 Months by Age and HIV RNA Copy Number in HIV-Infected Children Receiving No Therapy or Zidovudine Monotherapy  Figure 5
Figure modified from Lancet 2003;362:1605-1611

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